Hot Stock Picks

It looked like the bulls were going to stage a rally this afternoon but that attempt got squashed just as quickly as it started. The result was more than 2% losses on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Still, the mid-day bounce is encouraging since it shows that people are at least attempting to defend those nice round numbers of 900 and 1,600 on the indices. Both indices now have oversold short-term stochastic readings, so that’s another thing working for the bulls in this range-bound environment.

You know things are bad when one of the best charts is an airline stock. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) looks pretty good here after its pullback to moving average support on decreasing volume.

If bottom fishing is your thing you may like the next two charts. The risk/reward on Google Inc. (GOOG) looks pretty good here. It made an NR7 candle today, so that gives a nice, tight range to trade against (buy above, stop below) which also found support at the nice round number of 300. Today’s action looks like the market gunning for stops under the October lows. I’d like today’s candle even better if it had gone under 300 to trigger any stops in the high 290’s…

The setup on Coach, Inc. (COH) is similar to GOOG’s — and there are a lot of other stocks in similar positions. If the indices head back toward the top of their ranges these could get popping pretty quick.

Trend Table

no changes

Trend
Nasdaq
S&P 500
Russell 2000

Long-Term
Down
Down
Down

Intermediate
Down
Down
Down

Short-term
Down
Down
Down

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

Post from: Trader Mike

November 11, 2008 Recap & Charts to Watch

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At a weird stage in my life or perhaps just my thought processes. I

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Good morning. Premarket futures have a negative bias following weakness in overseas markets and another round of disappointing headlines. As Clariden Leu said this morning - “The bad news keeps coming. More and more companies are showing that they have…
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We’re in for more weakness this morning and some round-number support will be tested on both the S&P 500 (900) and Nasdaq (1600). It sure feels like the market wants to slice right through those levels and retest the October lows though.

On Today’s Calendar:

nothing

More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic

Potential swing trades:

See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.

Potential day trades:

(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KFN -36.0% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings and downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), SIL -30.1%, FMCN -22.3% (also downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna Financial, downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkEquity), USAP -12.0% (light volume), LVS -6.3%, CPSL -6.2%, TOL -4.4%, SBUX -3.2%… Select financial names showing continued weakness: GNW -13.6% (discloses that it is no longer eligible to sell commercial paper to the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; also Moody’s downgrades Genworth senior debt to Baa1), HBC -6.5%, AIG -6.1% (estimates cut at Stifel), MS -2.5%, ING -2.5%, GS -2.3%, BAC -1.2%, C -1.0%… Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices: AUY -4.7%, BHP -4.5%, RTP -4.1%, GFI -3.1%, GLD -1.7%… Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude lower: BP -3.1%, RDS.A -2.8%, TOT -2.0%, XOM -1.7%… Other news: SGMO -57.8% (announces results from diabetic Neuropathy clinical trial SB-509-601; also downgraded to Sell from Buy at Piper Jaffray), TLEO -28.5% (delays quarterly financial report; announces re-evaluation of timing of revenue recognition; also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), VPHM -8.5% (OPTR reported positive results for OPT-80 and reported only 13.3% of patients treated with OPT-80 experienced a recurrence vs. 24.0% for VPHM’s Vancocin), AA -5.3% (to curtail additional 350,000 mtpy of aluminum production across its Global Smelting System; also downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), GOOG -2.7% (Google 4Q revenue forecast cut at Goldman on poor macro data- Bloomberg), AZN -1.6% (still checking for anything specific)… Analyst comments: TSN -11.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), PRU -8.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - Bloomberg), HIG -5.8% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - Bloomberg), ACAS -4.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform
4766
from Outperform at William Blair and downgraded to Hold at BB&T).

Gapping Up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TMA +40.9%, TA +13.0% (light volume), VOD +10.4%, ESC +5.4%, ASEI +4.6% (light volume)… Other news: OPTR +93.5% (reports “positive data” from its North American phase 3 CDI study of OPT-80; also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), LNET +24.4% (Mark Cuban files 13D reporting 9.9% stake; may seek talks with LNET), ASTI +6.4% (Ascent Solar and TurtleEnergy sign cooperation agreement), WYNN +2.5% (will replace ASH in the S&P 500), BUCY +1.8% (will replace DENTSPLY in the S&P MidCap 400), XRAY +1.2% (will replace HRC in the S&P 500), PPG +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CHK +1.0% (announces Marcellus Shale joint venture and international unconventional natural gas exploration alliance with StatoilHydro).

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Post from: Trader Mike

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One who helps around the house keeping his own space tidy.
Dishes (shared),Looking after the younger ones when mum has to leave early for work before school. Nothing out of the ordinary really.

While we are at it Brother is 7 should he get an allowance?

At what age should kids have an allowance? and how much?
What should they be expected to do for nothing and what should be expected over the norm which earns an allowance?

Views?

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^DJI
 
8943.81
 
+248.02 (+2.85%)

^IXIC
 
1647.40
 
+38.70 (+2.41%)

^GSPC
 
930.99
 
+26.11 (+2.89%)

^NDX
 
1271.62
 
+29.65 (+2.39%)

^OEX
 
445.94
 
+12.73 (+2.94%)

^SML
 
269.95
 
+4.01 (+1.51%)

^QNET
 
81.63
 
+1.35 (+1.68%)

^VXO
 
58.38
 
-7.62 (-11.55%)

^VIX
 
56.10
 
-7.58 (-11.90%)

^VXN
 
55.14
 
-7.56 (-12.06%)

PVADX
 
21.58
 
+0.53 (+2.52%)

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Over the weekend I was sorting through some of the voluminous junk mail I recently received and I actually found one gem worth sharing (which is why I don't just dump the junk mail in the garbage without taking a…
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If, like me, you missed I.O.U.S.A. during its theatrical run you can now watch the condensed, 30 minute version online:

By now, you may have heard about our acclaimed documentary I.O.U.S.A., a film that boldly examines the rapidly growing national debt and its consequences for the United States and its citizens. The film has been a huge hit, getting rave reviews from Roger Ebert and others.

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Then, visit http://www.IOUSAtheMovie.com and join us in our Fiscal Wake-Up Movement. Together, we can make American fiscal responsibility a reality.

Post from: Trader Mike

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{

How speedily time flies.  It is now more than  a year since the stock markets posted a key long-term High.  It was spotlighted by a bearish Candlestick pattern, and has been attended all the way down during the cascade by a group of nearly identical bearish patterns.  The disasters attending the near-collapse of the entire national and world financial system during the past several weeks, resulting in passage of bailout legislation, reduced many shareholders to a state of great concern about the value of, and prospects for, their hard-earned nest eggs.

}

{

How unfortunate it is that so many people have worked so hard all their working lives to invest a meaningful sum for retirement, now to be faced with a massive diminution of the worth of their shares of stock – and the likelihood of worse to come.  What is even more unhappily the case is that they have no understanding of the defensive steps which they could have taken beginning in the Fall and Winter of 2007, and should be taking now and into the foreseeable future.

}

{

Every investor must avoid becoming a “deer in the headlights.”  The Japanese Candlestick  formations which have emerged during the past several weeks reveal the wealth-destroying power of this secular bear market, and the absolute need to institute counter-measures in order to protect the value of the investor’s holdings.

}

{

There is “insurance” available.  The “insurance”  can be purchased in the form of Inverse Stock Index Funds and Inverse Stock Index Exchange-Traded Funds.  There are many of them available on the open market, promoted by stable firms.  Their stated goal is to increase in value when the particular Index to which they are geared decreases in value.  Some of them  operate on an unleverged basis – for example, a particular Exchange-Traded Fund might be structured to increase one dollar in value for every dollar by which the Russell 2000 decreases in value.  Many of these funds are leveraged, for example on a two-for-one basis.

}

{

I believe that we are the unwilling victims of a secular bear market which is just now gearing up for a devastating depression  I am in favor of the principle that every investor should create and maintain a ”Constant Short” position, using either an Inverse Stock Mutual Fund or an Inverse Exchange-Traded Fund as the vehicle; and that he or she should be depositing funds into that “insurance plan” consistently, on a regular basis.  It is even possible, this way, to completely offset the possibility of loss in a portfolio.  Certainly, any degree of offset would be welcome.  Addtionally, it is possible to make an absolute profit, too.

}

{

Stock and Index prices move in waves, which are clearly discernable on price charts.  While a “Perpetual Short” program can be of extreme value in protecting the worth of one’s portfolio, deft use of Candlestick analysis can also be very useful in the identification of countertrends to be harvested for profit in upward countertrend corrections in a bear market.  Various methods of technical analysis can also be a great help in spotlighting the probable end of a countertrend rally and in pinpointing a great opportunity to “pounce on the bounce” for additional profit to the downside.

}

 http://www.candlewave.com

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While we started off November on the right foot, the post-election meltdown allowed the bears to win this week's battle. For the week, the S&P 500 lost -3.92%, Dow -4.09%, Nasdaq -4.27%, and the Russell 2000 -5.90%. There were some…
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